层次分析法在化工园区安全评价中的应用

本文采用层次分析法对化工园区域的安全水平评价进行了综合分析研究,得到了化工园区安全评价指标的选取、安全指标权重的确定的技术方法.结果表明,为了构建较为全面的化工园区安全水平评价指标体系,可从区域企业安全生产状况、区域规划状况、区域应急资源利用能力、区域社会经济状况四个方面共25个安全评价指标组成评价体系,进而采用层次分析法确定了各指标的权重,计算结果不仅能够反映园区风险的分布状况,而且对整个园区的规划和布局具有较好的决策支持作用.总而言之,将层次分析法用于化学工业园的安全评价是一种新的尝试,对此进行全面的介绍有着一定的工程实际应用价值.     

建筑火灾烟流运动特性网络模型的求解收敛性

分析了运用网络模型模拟建筑火灾烟流的计算过程，通过总结影响网络模型求解精度及收敛性的关键因素，改进了原烟流预测软件对建筑物各开口的净、正、负质量流量的算法。改进后的模型消除了振荡效应，模拟结果曲线平滑稳定，实现了运用网络模型对多室建筑物烟流特性的模拟计算。     

优势菌的筛选及其强化活性污泥好氧反硝化的研究

利用含活性污泥提取物的贫培养基筛选SBR系统中的好氧异养优势菌。结合自然温度（15～20℃）、延长培养时间等条件来提高菌群的可培养性。从SBR活性污泥系统中分离出5种细菌。4株去除COD优势菌，1株异养硝化细菌，能在好氧条件下实现对总氮的去除。反应池底采用边缘对称曝气，反应池内细菌在时间顺序和空间位置上循环经历好氧过程及微氧过程。将PVA铝盐法固定的细菌对反应器进行生物强化。结果显示，在好氧工艺的条件下，投加优势菌群后，与未加优势菌群的反应器相比，可以显著改善污泥的沉降性能，COD、NH₃-N和TN降解率显著提高，分别达到98%、97%和90%。生物强化作用明显，反应器内具有良好的好氧反硝化环境。     

社会和谐与可持续发展

本文运用系统科学原理阐释了社会和谐的内涵,指出社会和谐须以人与自然和谐为基础,以人与人之间的平等、友爱和同合作为表征,其构建与实现应遵从人类社会的演化规律,依赖予在把握人类社会需求演绎、协同人与自然关系的基础上推动生产力的高效有序发展和自然资源、生态环境的可持续支持.进而从可持续发展角度,提出了人与自然和谐的"双剩余理论",以揭示其间的供瓣枧理和协同准则;推导出了社会收益分配的相对公平系数,以衡量人与人公平要求下的社会和谐.针对国情和战略目标要求,提出了以加强小城镇建设为轴心的城市、小城镇与农村人流、物流、财流和信息流合理聚散的"三元结构"发展模式,以促进我国和谐社会的建设和可持续发展战略的有序实践.     

Remobilization of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons during the resuspension of Yangtze River sediments using a particle entrainment simulator

Remobilization of 16 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) during sediment resuspension was investigated using a particle entrainment simulator at shear stress from 0.2 to 0.5Nm(-2), typical of the energy levels present in many tidally driven aquatic environments. The results suggested that desorption from the entrained particles was the primary source of dissolved PAHs. summation operatorPAHs concentrations in particles on volume normalization increased about four times. However, on mass weight basis, summation operatorPAHs concentrations decreased from 6039.74+/-138.28microgkg(-1) to 1665.39+/-112.26microgkg(-1). The same trend was observed for individual PAHs. Dissolved concentrations of PAHs demonstrated significant differences depending on molecular weight and applied shear. The distribution of PAHs between particle and water phase suggested that for three-ring PAHs, the amounts of PAHs in particles were higher than the predicted values during our experiments. This might be due to presence of another active sorbent.     

企业安全文化评估与企业安全行为的质化研究

通过总结国内外各种不同的安全文化概念,归纳分析了国内外较为流行的近10种安全文化建立模式。在研讨文献的基础上,通过深入访谈、焦点小组与参与观察,归纳构造了一套共11个维度,总题项为152题的安全文化评估量表。通过对选定企业的实证问卷调查,进行统计分析,采用多元逐步回归分析等方法对安全文化各评核因素及整体安全文化进行预测,并以百分数呈现其整体的安全文化现状水平。通过基于扎根理论的各种质化研究方法,对案例企业的安全文化建设和企业安全行为进行研究,得到了7点关于企业安全行为的研究发现,并提出了相应的改进建议。     

Dryland characteristics and its optimized eco‐productive paradigms for sustainable development in China

Dryland area occupies 37% of the national territory in China. Desertification and other disasters have limited dryland sustainable development. Here we overview the dryland characteristics and desertification status and introduce four regionally optimized eco‐productive paradigms for dryland sustainable development, i.e., the mountain‐oasis paradigm in arid desert; the small watershed‐based paradigm on the Loess Plateau; the integrated animal husbandry paradigm on the Inner Mongolia Steppe and the agro‐pastoral transitional region; and three circle paradigm on the Ordos Plateau. These paradigms are established on the basis of regional landscape patterns and their underlying material and energy flow rules, and different functional belts are determined and capitalized upon with the integrated consideration of regional biogeophysical processes, biogeochemical cycles and biogeosocial relations. These paradigms cannot cover all complex landscape types, but provide theoretical frameworks and practicable models for dryland sustainable development in China.     

A Sensitivity Analysis of an Integrated Modelling Approach to Assess the Risk of Wind-borne Spread of Foot-and-mouth Disease Virus from Infected Premises

The sensitivity of an integrated model to assess the potential for wind-borne spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) to variations in key parameters controlling different physical and biological processes was evaluated. The estimated number of farms at risk is sensitive to the virus strain used and the accompanying effective contact rate. The C Noville strain increased the estimated number of exposed farms ranked as high and medium risk of being infected by a factor of 5, compared to the baseline, based on the O UKG 2001 strain. The inclusion of a model for biological ageing of the virus can also have a significant effect on the concentration patterns arising from transport and dispersion of the virus. Its inclusion has the practical advantage of markedly reducing the time required for the calculations. The estimated number of farms affected by exposure to high and medium virus concentrations is not grossly sensitive to attenuation caused by temperature or relative humidity effects. Changes in susceptibility to infection, as determined by the parameter θ in the exposure-risk model, does not change the configuration of the virus plumes, but it does change the distribution of farms at risk by risk category. These findings suggest that a good understanding of characteristics (excretion rates from infected animals, susceptibility of different species to infection, virus survival, etc.) of the virus strain involved in an FMD outbreak is necessary to provide a reliable assessment of the risk of wind-borne spread. In the event of an incursion of FMD, provision for laboratory studies on the virus will be an essential component of the disease response and should be factored into contingency plans.

村级水资源的管理与利用研究--来自南方四个村的案例分析

农村水资源及其相关设施的改革需要更多了解村和户层次上的现实状况和机制安排。以避免改革扭曲和失败。通过对湖北和广西共四个村的村委会、关键知情人及120个农户的调查。在村和农户两个层次上描述水资源及其相关设施的管理与利用，尤其是在干旱年份村和户所采取的策略。并深入分析了农村村级水资源管理与利用的制度安排与问题。得出的结论是。追求水利管理效率的市场化改革需要考虑干旱的威胁，要有基于风险的制度设计和法律保障。     

2004年10-12月全球灾害录

10月2日低温气流突袭湖北武汉,全市狂风不止气温骤降。 台湾红火蚁灾情蔓延,全台5个县市受灾。 3日泰国发现全亚洲首例狗感染禽流感病例。 5日江西一煤矿发生瓦斯爆炸事故,造成9人死亡。 7日广西出现罕见的局部严重干旱,67万亩农田出现旱情。 8日久晴不雨的湘江中游出现了秋季最低水位。 9日鹤矿集团十三化工公司雷管车间发生爆炸,13人伤亡。 10日湖北一学校发生食物中毒事件,34名学生人院治疗。 11日水资源占全国1乃的长江流域污水处理率仅为1明毛。 16日罗马尼亚一3岁雌黑熊肇事,导致l死10伤。 19日四川宝兴县发生岩体垮塌事故,死亡9人失…